Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 3/16/25
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Novocaine Wins Domestic Debut Over Pathetically Weak Box Office Weekend
After last weekend’s abysmal debut of Mickey 17, there was much speculation about which movie would take the #1 spot this weekend and what kind of drop we would see from Mickey 17. Though the battle was close, we can now report that newcomer Novocaine has taken the top spot this week domestically, and Mickey 17 is still battling another new film called Black Bag for the #2 spot. Before getting to that battle, let’s start off by breaking down the $8.7 million domestic debut for the $18 million-budgeted Novocaine. Currently rocking a solid 67% “Rad” score over on Critcless, Novocaine opened to roughly $10,500,000 globally, which means the movie came in under some initial projections that had the film making roughly that much in just its domestic debut. Though reviews and word-of-mouth seem to be trending towards the positive end of things, Novacaine still needs to make between $45-$54 million globally just to break even. Remembering once again that most films, on average, make 3x their global opening weekends by the end of their respective runs, this means that Novacaine is only likely to make about $30 million at the worldwide box office. Though the word-of-mouth could absolutely lead to the film doing better than the average movie release, and the film has yet to open in a couple of international markets (albeit not very large ones), the fact remains that we won’t be able to call whether Novacaine will make its money back until the end of next weekend. What we can currently say is that, with its smaller budget, the movie is currently only about -$20 million in the red and, therefore, could get enough life after it leaves theaters and begins selling on VOD and physical media.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Novocaine ($8.7 million as a new release)
- Mickey 17 (60% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Black Bag ($7.5 million as a new release)
- Captain America: Brave New World (35% drop in 5th weekend)
- The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie ($3.1 million as a new theatrical release)
Mickey 17 Officially a Flop… Will Lose +$100 Million
Though the signs that Mickey 17 was on the road to being another massive Hollywood flop were very clear last weekend, we can now officially report that, with a 60% domestic drop, the movie is now predicted to lose roughly $100 million. With a second global weekend total of $67,334,157, Mickey 17 is on pace to make only about $96,191,653 to $134,668,314 at the global box office when everything is said and done. The reported budget of $118 million and the current audience reception (or, more accurately, rejection) of the movie is more than enough to put the nail in its box office coffin. Mickey 17 currently sits at an abysmal 39% “Bogus” score over on Criticless. The sad reality is that if the movie had not cast Mark Ruffalo to play the character he does in the movie, it would likely be doing a bit better because the universal message from reviews is that Robert Pattinson is amazing, but Ruffalo annoys the heck out of you to the point of wanting to walk out of the theater.
Captain America: Brave New World Now Likely to Hit $400 Million Globally but Still Lose +$150 Million
Speaking of massive flops like Mickey 17, the box office for Captain America: Brave New World continues to disappoint as the film still trails where Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania was domestically at the same point of its release by roughly 10%. The only good news that one could arguably report about the film’s finances is that the chances of it crossing $400 million globally before the end of its run are now much more likely. After five weekends, the movie has made about $388,596,912 worldwide. If it continues to see drops in the 30% range domestically and has any life at all internationally (it made about $9 million internationally last weekend), it could pass the $400 million mark over the next couple of weeks. This will still not be enough to get it anywhere close to the final Quantumania box office, but it could help it beat out some of the other weaker MCU global releases like Eternals or The Incredible Hulk (all adjusted for inflation, of course). The fate of Brave New World is still to be one of the worst MCU box office performances of all time, but it has a chance to climb a spot or two… which is still abysmal for a movie that likely cost well over $300 million just produce.
Check out my latest box office videos on my YouTube channel HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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