Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 4/27/25
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Sinners Word of Mouth and Insane Second Weekend Hold Defy Projections
It is not often in the modern box office era that a movie is able to destroy projections after a decent opening weekend and a bloated budget. The story has now completely changed for the latest Michael B. Jordan/Ryan Coogler film, Sinners, which last week (as impressive as it was) still had the $90-$100 million budget hanging over its head and historically low prospects of digging its way out of that hole. For its 2nd weekend, however, it dropped only 6% from the previous weekend, which is one of the best week 1 to week 2 holds I have ever seen. Though this only represents the domestic box office, and it isn’t doing much elsewhere, because of how studios and theaters split the box office sales, this is exactly where Sinners wants to be making this kind of money.
Last weekend, I mentioned that if Sinners went on to have just an average run (which, remember, is the global opening representing about 30% of the total box office for most films on average), the movie would have ended a far cry from what it needs to break even at the box office before VOD or other revenue streams were considered. With a drop of only 6%, however, Sinners is nowhere near the average run for a film of its size and is now projected to make quite a bit of money (mostly from the domestic market) and has an all but guaranteed chance of making some decent profits after you subtract the production budget and expected marketing costs. Since most movies tend to drop between 50% and 70%, one can easily see why Sinners is well on its way to being a chart breaker before it ever leaves theaters. Clearly, the consistent praise it has received over on Criticless, which still stands at a solid 79% “Rad” score with 53 reviews currently posted, does not just represent the passionate film community there but broader general audiences.
Based on the 2nd weekend numbers, we can now project that Sinners will end its global box office run with roughly $230,894,286 to $323,252,000. Keep in mind that this is assuming the film has an average run from this point, which, based on its strong week-2 hold, is likely on the low side of what it could still end up making. Because the budget is still reported as being an average of about $95 million, Sinners will either lose only -$3,963,429, which is much better than what was looking to be closer to $50 million in losses after last week, or as much as about $50 million in net profits. It must be stated that the bloated budget is still absolutely hurting this film because of how much more net profits it could have made had they been able to keep spending under control. It is not common for movies like this to do as well as this one is, so clearly, there is something special about Sinners that is reaching audiences like very few movies of its kind (mostly notably an original story) can. Though I still stand by the reporting from last week, this is a great reminder that predicting box office results after only an opening weekend is never a guarantee. Though most films, on average, do perform at that 30% rate, you can never know for sure until the week-2 numbers come in. Kudos to the whole team behind Sinners for doing something truly remarkable and very rarely seen at the modern box office.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Sinners (6% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith 20th Anniversary ($25 million)
- The Accountant 2 ($24.4 million as a new release)
- A Minecraft Movie (44% drop in 4th weekend)
- Until Dawn ($8 million as a new release)
The Accountant 2 Struggles Despite Strong Reviews
While Sinners is beating the odds and performing insanely well for a movie of its kind and with its budget, the same cannot be said for the Ben Affleck sequel The Accountant 2, which has an estimated budget of about $80 million and only made about $24,492,743 in its global opening (international results have not yet been reported, though is not expected to be much). Based on where most films end up, The Accountant 2 will most likely end up with a total box office take of about $75-$100 million globally. Since it needs to make between $200-$250 million just to break even, the chances of it doing so are not that great. While some might say that the reviews have been pretty solid and that the same argument was made last week for Sinners, the biggest differences are that The Accountant 2 opened to about half of what Sinners did, and it is just not seeing the same word of mouth as the Ryan Coogler flick. While Sinners is beating the odds and showing that there are some original films that can drive people to the theater and outperform a bloated budget, The Accountant 2 is much more likely to perform as expected.
Check out my latest box office videos on my YouTube channel HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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Comments (2)
Remmick wanted Sammie’s gift because he craved the opportunity to be in touch with his ancestors. Remmick was Irish & lived through Ireland’s colonization by the British
Should have been clearer. You can’t unscramble eggs. One the Irish were forced into British and Americana, he lost touch with his people, which is the paradox of the USA melting pot. Once melted, you can’t really go back.
Just the way it is. Just saying and no shade.
In some ways, I thought Sinners was just a typical hate whitey movie like Django, but, for some reason, I did enjoy the movie. There’s an interview with cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw in Collider that is a very good read.
Some another interpretation of the film that Remik the Vampire represented integration, so the Celts had already been integrated into America, which was why he wanted Sammy’s power to see his people again because, in the movie, Vampirism = culture vulturism, so his people and their music had already been commercialized by the system, so he wanted something newer, which was the blues.
Whoever is writing some of these comments that I get the read are making this movie way better than it was on viewing it. Heavy symbolism made it far more fun. I liked the musical numbers a bunch. The videographer above, she did some music videos and talked about shooting on large formats and it was really interesting. That montage dance scene was one for the ages.