Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 5/11/25
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Thunderbolts* Recovers in Week 2… But Will It Be Enough?
As the online battle over whether Thunderbolts* is a good movie or not wages on, the box office story is beginning to shape up for a potential comeback story for the latest MCU property from Disney. After last week’s 2nd worst opening weekend domestically in MCU history, the film was able to hold on and only drop about 55%, which, though not the best of holds, could still lead to the movie making some of its money back theatrically. The story goes that after an abysmally weak domestic opening, the international numbers came in at a much more typical rate even for the modern MCU. With a middle-of-the-road-level drop domestically and a typical drop internationally, if Thunderbolts* movie only cost $180 million to make as all of the trades are reporting, it has a solid chance to make a small profit before it even hits the VOD market.
Based on the fact that the movie made roughly $272,154,195 globally over its 2nd weekend, we can now project that Thunderbolts* will make somewhere between $388,791,707 and $544,308,390 by the end of its global run. While many are trying to compare the film to the Guardians of the Galaxy movies in relation to its perceived entertainment value, the fact is that the starting point for this film was too low, and the audience is clearly still not completely convinced to push the box office to the levels we saw for those previous films. If Thunderbolts* continues to perform at the level that it currently is, it will likely cap out before it reaches $500 million worldwide. Though this would mean it would have beaten the incredibly weak Captain America: Brave New World, it would still be well below the $540 million break-even number. When you take into account that Disney is notorious for pushing fake budget numbers out there, which are normally off by at least $100 million, the story of a comeback quickly begins to fade. Could the movie make its money back? Sure, it’s possible… but right now, the odds are not in favor of the MCU, especially as the summer movie season is about to kick off and other movies begin to crowd Thunderbolts* out of the higher ticket-priced premium format screens.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Thunderbolts* (55% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Sinners (36% drop in 4th weekend)
- A Minecraft Movie (42% drop in 6th weekend)
- The Accountant 2 (36% drop in 3rd weekend)
- Clown in a Cornfield ($3.6 millon as a new release)
Sinners Finally Makes a Profit as New Releases Struggle
The amazing box office run for the vampire flick Sinners continues to impress as it goes into its 4th weekend of release and still holds with numbers that are rarely seen in today’s box office. The fact that after four weeks, Sinners is still making over $20 million domestically for a movie of its kind is well worth the praise and attention it’s getting, whether you like the movie or not. The movie has now reached $214 million domestically, $283,337,000 globally, and is now officially profitable with about $3,000,350 in net gains if we assume the budget is $95 million… which is indeed in debate, as the range online has been between $90-$100 million, with most sites reporting the lower number. Whatever the budget is, Sinners is now a financial winner at the box office.
While Sinners is doing well after all this time, the three new releases this weekend ultimately came up a bit short in raw box office numbers. The most successful of the three is without a doubt Clown in a Cornfield, which made about $3,650,000 in its debut but only cost less than $1 million, meaning that the film is already profitable. The same cannot be said for Fight or Flight (2025) or Shadow Force, with both films only making $2,383,212 and $2,015,000, respectively. Though the budget for Fight or Flight is unknown but likely less than $10 million (whereas Shadow Force cost about $40 million), both are still a far cry from box office success, and neither seem to be making waves online as Fight or Flight currently has a 73% “Rad” score on Criticless with only 11 reviews and Shadow Force has no rating yet since only three reviews have been posted so far (of which the two visible ones are not good). While next weekend could see a different story for Fight or Flight take shape, the same will not be happening for Shadow Force.
Check out my latest box office videos at my YouTube channel HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE, and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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