Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 5/4/25
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Thunderbolts* Sees Second Worst Opening in MCU History*
Even though the word-of-mouth for the latest movie in the MCU has been mixed to positive, the opening domestic numbers do not bode well for the future of Thunderbolts*. It must be stated that, as always, we must wait for the week-2 drop-off before we know for sure if the film will be another MCU box office bomb or whether it will be able to defy the odds and make something back off of another massive budget, which is reportedly $180 million. But, as we all know by now, Disney is notorious for slipping low-balled figures to the press to create the appearance of box office success or, at the very least, basic survival. Based on these opening weekend numbers, it’s not looking great for either option unless signs of some kind of word-of-mouth boost begin to show throughout the week and Thunderbolts* is able to avoid the typical week-2 plummet that is a staple of the MCU.
The opening weekend brought Thunderbolts* roughly $76 million domestically and about $162 million globally. Looking at that domestic take (unless the actuals tick upward when they’re released on Monday or Tuesday), Thunderbolts* had the 2nd worst domestic opening in the history of the MCU when you account for inflation and compare projected weekend ticket sales. The only MCU film that did worse than this was 2023’s The Marvels, which only made $46 million in its domestic opening ($49 million when adjusted), with ticket sales estimated to be about 3.5 million. In comparison, Thunderbolts* opened to $76 million and 5.4 million tickets. The only other movies in the franchise to compare are Ant-Man, which made an adjusted $74 million but sold roughly 6.7 million tickets, and The Incredible Hulk (2008), which made an adjusted $79 million and sold about 7.7 million tickets. After the failure that was Captain America: Brave New World, which opened earlier this year, this is not the kind of opening that Disney wants to be seeing for an MCU film… especially as the prospects for The Fantastic Four: First Steps remain uncertain and as they begin to spend hundreds of millions on their upcoming Avengers projects. While Brave New World opened to $180 million globally and only ended barely above $400 million (roughly $415), the word-of-mouth on this film could mean stronger holds down the road and could even lead to Thunderbolts* taking in more total box office than Cap 4. The problem that continues to plague Disney, however, is all of the money they continue to waste on bloated budgets that make hitting about $540 million globally necessary if one of their movies has any hopes of breaking even theatrically. With 50 reviews currently posted over on Criticless, Thunderbolts* is barely holding on to a 60% “Rad” score, though there is a strong war of words over the film still raging in the comments.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Thunderbolts* ($76 million as a new release)
- Sinners (28% drop in 3rd weekend)
- A Minecraft Movie (40% drop in 5th weekend)
- The Accountant 2 (61% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Until Dawn (53% drop in 2nd weekend)
Sinners Holds Well Again as The Accountant 2 Flops
After an insane week-2 hold of 95% last weekend, Sinners has once again held its spot in the top 3, making another $33 million and dropping only 28%. Though the movie has still not broken even, it will likely easily do that by the time next weekend rolls around and seems on pace to make upwards of $50 million in net profits when all is said and done. A lot about Sinners has changed since its opening weekend, but what is clear is that, though the movie is more than ever an example of the rare box office success for an original film of its kind in the modern era, it is also another reminder of how these out-of-control budgets are harming the overall box office returns for so many studios today. Costing between $90-100 million when it likely could have been made just as well for at least half of that means that another $50 million or more in potential profits has been left on the sidelines. Hollywood studios need to solve this crisis in spending, as Sinners’ success is the exception and not the rule for movies of this size.
Though there was a lot of positive word-of-mouth for The Accountant 2, the film’s drop of 61% in week 2 spells disaster for a movie that cost about $80 million to make. With a 2nd weekend of about $54,340,610, we can project that The Accountant 2 will make between $75-$108 million by the end of its run, which equates to roughly -$75 million in projected losses. Though the film could see some new life on VOD and beyond, this is not where any movie wants to be this early in its release. The Accountant 2 is also a perfect example of how most movies perform after their opening weekend, even with good word-of-mouth. It not only speaks to the same issue of budgets I mentioned with Sinners but also proves why the initial numbers did not bode well historically when it opened just 2 weeks ago.
For the breakdown of the 2nd weekend of Until Dawn and updates on other films, check out my latest video on my channel!
Check out my latest box office videos on my YouTube channel HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
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