Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 6/8/25
What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!
Ballerina Has Second Worst Opening of John Wick Franchise
With the summer box office now in full swing, the state of Hollywood and the struggles it continues to have become much more clearly established. In a summer that has already seen massive releases from Disney with Lilo and Stitch and even Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (though its massive budget takes any wind from its sails), we are continuing to see films that should be doing better either struggling or just downright flopping from the get-go. Whether it is the bloated budgets, apathy from many in the moviegoing audience, or a mixture of both and then some, what remains clear is that Hollywood has not recovered from the COVID/Hollywood strike. This is mostly due to their own terrible decisions, with the subpar content they continue to provide and the push to streaming that is proving to be a massive financial challenge for most of the studios in that game.
A great example of the struggle at the box office can be seen with the latest release from Lionsgate, Ballerina, which, though it is overall a decent enough movie, was only able to make about $51 million globally in its opening frame. For context, the domestic total of only $25 million is the second-worst for the John Wick franchise, only beating the original film, which still made around $18.3 million when adjusted for inflation. The comparison becomes even worse when you look at estimated ticket sales and see that the first John Wick sold about 1,764,495 tickets in its opening domestic weekend, while Ballerina has currently only accounted for 1,785,714. In a franchise that saw its numbers either double or at the very least increase (John Wick: Chapter 4 ended the doubling trend), for the newest entry – albeit a spin-off – to drop all the way down to some of the lowest numbers of the series is a bad sign for the longevity of this film’s release and raises questions about any other potential spin-offs that won’t be starring Keanu Reeves. Many factors could explain why these numbers are as low as they are, and there is still a chance for Ballerina to recover in week 2 and change its current trajectory. However, with a budget of roughly $90 million and a break-even point of about $255 million… starting off at around $50 million globally does not bode well for its chances to make any money back theatrically. The audience response is definitely not where Lionsgate wants it to be if it is to have any chance of making some money back, as reviews have been very mixed. With a current 73% “Rad” score over on Criticless, one might assume that the word-of-mouth must be pretty good, but when you dive into the very limited reviews, however, you quickly see how divisive this film is for both John Wick and non-JW fans alike.
According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:
- Lilo and Stitch (47% drop in 3rd weekend)
- Ballerina ($25 million as a new release)
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (45% drop in 3rd weekend)
- Karate Kid: Legends (57% drop in 2nd weekend)
- Final Destination: Bloodlines (40% drop in 4th weekend)
Lilo and Stitch Nears $800 Million
Last week, I projected that the latest live-action remake from Disney, Lilo and Stitch, was well on its way towards hitting $1 billion. Although this past weekend did see it begin to fall back from its lead against the daily numbers for A Minecraft Movie, the domestic and international holds still point to it hitting $1 billion in the next few weeks. With a current global box office of about $772 million, the film will easily hit $800 million before the end of next weekend and will likely be around $850 million by next week’s box office breakdown article. Stay tuned for further analysis as we continue to track what is likely to be one of the highest-grossing films of 2025.
Karate Kid: Legends Might Barely Break Even; Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Still a Flop
After last week’s relatively weak opening for Karate Kid: Legends, the domestic drop of about 57% means that the film actually has a chance to break even and maybe even make a small profit as well. Based on its second weekend global total being around $74 million, we can now project that Karate Kid: Legends will likely end its box office run with between $105,714,286 and $148,000,000. With a budget of only $45 million and a break-even point of around $135,000,000, the film will either lose between $10-15 million or make about the same when all is said and done. Though this isn’t going to be the biggest moneymaker in the world, the current state of the box office typically does not work well with these middling-budget-type movies. Even getting close to the break-even point would probably be viewed as a win for the studios involved. as they will likely get something back in the VOD and physical media markets.
Check out my latest box office videos on my YouTube channel HERE!
If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!
(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE and the RCC method I use to break down movies internationally HERE.)
***
Get a META PC today; use code “199” to save on all purchases!
If you want to know what kind of political leanings movies have or just talk about cinema, check out the movie ratings community Criticless.
Get Your Geeks + Gamers merch here!
