Superman Box Office Tracking is Down… Way Down
Did Superman tell a super fib about his box office prospects? A month ago, James Gunn’s upcoming superhero film, the first in his and DC Studios co-CEO Peter Safran’s new DCU, was tracking to make up to $175 million domestically in its opening weekend, a terrific number that would have put the movie and the DCU on a sure footing. Since then, it has been adjusted, with Deadline saying the tracking from the National Research Group has predicted a somewhat lower opening weekend range of $125-$145 million; not quite as super, but still pretty good, especially in the current moviegoing climate. However, according to distribution sources who spoke to Deadline, the real number is likely in the $90-125 million range, and that ain’t good. While Superman’s official budget is $225 million, tax documents listed the budget at $363.8 million, and while James Gunn claimed that was false, those are government documents. A Hollywood Reporter article about bloated budgets states that not only is the $363.8 million figure accurate, but marketing would easily put it over $400 million. And now, it’s set to make as little as $90 million over its biggest weekend (unless word-of-mouth is better than that of Gone With the Wind, Casablanca, The Godfather, and Big Momma’s House 3 put together).
Why the downturn? It has to do with audience excitement, naturally; Superman scores highly on a scale they call “unaided awareness,” which means people are aware of the movie or IP without advertising – which makes sense because Superman is one of the most well-known characters in the history of fiction. Superman’s unaided awareness score is higher than that of Top Gun: Maverick, according to Deadline, which made $126.7 million in its opening weekend, which is comparable to what Superman is predicted to top out with. The reason Superman isn’t trending higher than Maverick is that it doesn’t score particularly well on a scale called “first choice,” meaning a movie people want to see more than anything else coming out. Deadline reports that Superman scores lower than three other recent superhero films: Thor: Love and Thunder, which had a $144.1 million opening weekend; The Batman, which made $134 million in its debut weekend; and James Gunn’s own Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, which opened to $118.4 million. Even worse, Superman scored lower on the first choice scale than Captain America: Brave New World, this year’s first Marvel bomb that made $88.8 million in its opening weekend, or $100 million if you count the Monday, which was President’s Day. And Brave New World’s score was 71% higher than Superman’s. Ouch.
This has got to be sobering for Warner Bros. and James Gunn. I don’t mean today; I’m sure they’ve known about this for some time, and fudging box office tracking numbers early on seems like a common practice nowadays. But it puts the test screenings and reports of reshoots and frantic editing into better perspective. (Yeah, Gunn said most of that was not true, but he also said the budget cited in official government filings wasn’t real, so take what he says with a grain of salt.) The grand plans Gunn has for the DCU could be up in smoke if Superman bombs; some of the films already in production will be made, like Supergirl and, I believe, Clayface, plus the TV show Lanterns. And Warner Bros. will have yet another failed attempt to make a sustainable franchise out of the DC Comics Universe, which they own in its entirety, under their belt, which is embarrassing when that universe contains Superman and Batman. And, of course, there are variables here; word-of-mouth could be strong, and if people like Superman and not only go back to see it but get their hesitant friends and families to go, it could have legs and do at least well enough to allow Gunn and Safran to fight another day. If, then, Superman becomes something audiences discover gradually, it could translate into bigger hits down the road – a rising tide that took a little longer to rise. We’ll see in less than a month when Superman hits theaters, but things are suddenly not looking so bright for the Man of Steel.
Let us know what you think of Superman’s box office tracking in the comments!
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Comments (2)
This one seems to be some weird amalgam of an origin story and an established Superman; they say it’s not an origin story, but it looks like it has some of the trappings, like Superman’s first encounter with Lex Luthor and the world figuring out what to make of him. It’s like they’re having their cake and eating it too. And Gunn said he doesn’t plan more solo movies for Superman, at least for a while, so this is it, although you could make an argument that this isn’t really a solo movie either.
Part of the reason for it is what I call Superman origin fatigue where any Superman movie whether it be anime or live action is only about the origin of Superman.
Its like Bill Murray’s Groundhog Day and the only thing different about each one is that its tweaked a little bit but ultimately its the same damn origin storyline of Superman.
The only time we ever got something beyond the origin of Superman was Superman 2-4 and then Superman The Animated Series but anything else its Groundhog Day Superman.