Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 3/17/24

Movies

What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!

Kung Fu Panda 4 to Have Franchise Worst Box Office

As we wait for the next major releases starting next week with the new Ghostbusters film, and in two weeks the next “Monsterverse” flick, we are left with Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two battling it out for the #1 and #2 spots. Both easily defeated the only wide newcomer this weekend, Mark Wahlberg’s story about dogs, Arthur the King. Though Kung Fu Panda has the edge against Dune, the fact that Dune is only barely behind it in its third weekend is still very impressive. With the week 2 numbers for Kung Fu Panda being around $176,499,000, we can now project that it will end its theatrical run somewhere between $250 and $350 million worldwide. When adjusted for inflation, this would mean that it would be the lowest total box office in the franchise. Even without adjusting the numbers, it would still be roughly $200 million behind Kung Fu Panda 3’s total…yikes. Even with this being the case, the movie’s modest $85 million budget means that it will still likely make between $30-$50 million in net gain profit on the high end. 

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. Kung Fu Panda 4 (48% drop in 2nd weekend)
2. Dune: Part Two (37% drop in 3rd weekend)
3. Arthur the King ($7.5 million as a new release)
4. Imaginary (44% drop in 2nd weekend)
5. Cabrini (61% drop in 2nd weekend)

Dune: Part Two vs. Oppenheimer (Current Status)

Last weekend, I mentioned that Dune: Part Two was roughly 9% behind the worldwide box office of last year’s Oppenheimer. Though I do not have the third-week tracking for Oppenheimer’s worldwide number, based on where the two films’ domestic totals currently sit, Dune: Part Two is tracking roughly 11% behind where Oppenheimer was last August. With the lead for Oppenheimer widening every week (though not by much domestically, at least), it is safe to say that Dune will likely end its run between $650 and $800 million worldwide. If I had to make a guess right now, I would say an ending in the $700 million range would be a very likely scenario.

The bigger issue for Dune’s box office is that it has still not made its money back. With a budget of $190 million and a stronger showing internationally versus its domestic take (and using the RCC method), the film is still about $60 million in the red. Though this one has already performed better financially than Dune: Part One, which came out back in 2021, it still has a little ways to go. If I had to guess, I would say that it will hit its break-even in about 1-2 weeks, but it depends on how well the upcoming Ghostbusters and “Monsterverse” films end up doing. However, even when it does break even, it will still be a very small profit compared to its budget. Perhaps the deal between Warner Bros. as the distributor and Legendary as the primary producer will make this all a moot point… we will have to wait and see.

The American Society of Magical…Box Office Failures

Something that is not shocking is how poorly this new film about a certain magical society is doing at the box office. Not only did Focus Features not report their box office numbers for the premiere until Saturday, but it seems impossible to find out how much the film made in its Thursday evening premieres. In total, the movie made only $520,000 on its opening day, which includes both the Thursday and Friday numbers…yikes. With no reported budget to be found, if this film cost even just $1 million to make, we are looking at a massive flop when you compare total spending to total box office. The movie reportedly only made $1,250,000 in its opening, which is roughly a third of what was originally projected by Focus Features. It is easy to say that this film is a massive failure in every single way.

For video coverage of this weekend’s box office, check out my latest video HERE.

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and as always, God bless!

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE.)