Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 4/21/24

Movies

What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!

Abigail Battles Civil War for Top Spot as Henry Cavill Returns to the Box Office

As a month of medium-size releases continues, the new horror film Abigail battled last week’s Civil War, which is coming off of a better-than-expected opening weekend and a surprisingly strong hold in its second week. Based on the newly reported weekend domestic numbers, Civil War won that battle. With a slightly elevated budget for a horror film ($28 million), Abigail needs to make roughly $70-$100 million to break even; the estimated $15 million worldwide total still means that the film is a far cry from that. A similar story can be said of Civil War after its second weekend, in which it continues to perform better than I and others could ever have expected. The fact remains, however, that it needs to make roughly $125 million to break even, and being only at roughly $48.1 million means that its chances of reaching that amount aren’t very good. We can now project that the film will lose around $50 million, which, though a loss, is definitely more than what they probably were expecting based on initial estimates and after a very strong word-of-mouth campaign of intense debate. Officially, according to my charting, Civil War will likely end its theatrical run making between $68-$96 million in total box office. Since most of this will likely be from the domestic market, the chances of it only losing about $15 million aren’t off the table, and with not much else as competition for another couple of weeks, the word-of-mouth and fiery debates over the film could drive it even closer

While the news for Abigail and Civil War is currently mixed, we can say that the opening for Guy Ritchie’s new film, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, is not quite a strong one. Despite featuring the likes of Henry Cavill and a good supporting cast, the movie only made about $9 million domestically. Though it seems like it could do well when it opens in the UK, the fact is that Ritchie’s films haven’t done much there, with many films capping out at around $15 million. We will have a better idea of what Ministry will likely make after next week, but with a $60 million budget, this is not off to a good start for what is arguably a mediocre Guy Ritchie production.

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. Civil War (56% drop in 2nd weekend)
2. Abigail ($10.2 million as a new release)
3. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (39% drop in 4th weekend)
4. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($9 million as a new release)
5. Spy x Family: Code White ($4.8 million as a new release)

The Truth About the Godzilla x Kong and Dune: Part Two Box Office

Now that a little time has passed since I last updated my RCC charts for Dune: Part Two, today is a good day to look at both it and the updated numbers for Godzilla x Kong. When I last spoke about Dune, I mentioned how it had just broken even and begun to make some profit (about 2-3 weeks ago). The profits have continued to grow, though because it is still making most of its money internationally and in China, the raw totals still haven’t changed much. Despite the film having made almost $700 million worldwide, when you remember the budget, the marketing, and the splits between theaters and studios, Dune: Part Two has only brought in about $27 million in net gain profit. This is still a very small amount to get back after investing hundreds of millions of dollars in production and marketing. The film is likely heading to a final run somewhere between $700-$800 million, but as we have been seeing because of the international splits, it is not likely to see a whole lot more in actual profits. For anyone who would argue that the movie will make more in China, I talk about those claims in my article posted HERE.

Moving on to Godzilla x Kong, there is not much difference between this and Dune: Part Two, as they both feature the same production companies, distributor, and international box office problem. However, the biggest differences between these two films cannot be ignored: Godzilla x Kong cost $60 million less than Dune, China accounts for roughly ¼-⅕ of Godzilla’s total box office and only 15% of Dune’s, and Dune has almost double the domestic against Godzilla x Kong at the same point of its release. The fact is that Godzilla x Kong is doing better than anyone expected, especially after the last two films in the series saw massive dips not only in quality but in comparative box office to the rest of the “Monsterverse.” When you compare Godzilla x Kong to the previous movies in the franchise, it has already beaten the total final box office for both Godzilla vs Kong (2021) and Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2019). I mention the points prior to this, however, to showcase the fact that Godzilla x Kong will not likely get anywhere near the final totals for Kong: Skull Island (2017) or even Godzilla (2014) when you justly compare the adjusted numbers for inflationary changes. The audience for the franchise has still not come back since Kong: Skull Island, and though making some profit is the end goal of these films, the fact is that even after being out for a month, the new movie has still not officially made all of its money back. While I expect that to happen in time, the final result will be similar to what Dune: Part Two is shaping up to be… a small net gain profit that continues to beg the question, where is Legendary hiding all of the money? Or it could simply be that the industry has gotten so complex, especially since COVID, that the numbers being reported do not actually reflect what is going on behind the scenes. Only time will tell.

For video coverage of this weekend’s box office, check out my latest video HERE.

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and, as always, God bless!

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE.)