Box Office Breakdown for Weekend of 4/7/24

Movies

What’s up, Geeks + Gamers? It’s ODIN!

Godzilla x Kong Drops 60% Domestically But Easily Wins Weekend

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire surprised everyone last weekend by opening to roughly $80 million domestically and almost $200 million worldwide. After only seeing a 60% drop domestically, which is on the better end of the drops for movies in the “Monsterverse,” the film has reached over $360 million at the worldwide box office. For comparison, the last “Monsterverse” film, Godzilla vs. Kong, had roughly $357 million at the same point in its release. Some are arguing that because the 2021 movie had an early release in China and a couple of other markets, the comparison is unfair. The truth, however, is that with only a few extra days in theaters, and at a time when COVID was still a problem, and with the film being released day and date on HBO Max (now just Max)… it’s a bit of a wash and indicates that the audience for the latest “Monsterverse” film is not much bigger than the one for the previous release. This does not mean that Godzilla x Kong is in financial trouble as the 2021 film was because, as of now, Godzilla x Kong is tracking to make between $515,768,043 and $722,075,260, which is much higher than the roughly $450 million made by Godzilla vs. Kong.

Ultimately, the biggest question mark is whether Godzilla x Kong has broken even yet and what its likely net gain or losses will be. My RCC method indicates that, as of right now, because roughly a third of its total box office is coming from China, the film is still about $50 million in the red, which it should easily be able to make up by the end of its theatrical run. The one argument that could indicate it has already broken even is to take what Wanda Group (which owns Legendary Entertainment) chairman Wang Jianlin has said, which is that the studio will be getting a better than 25% cut in China. However, there is no indication of how much they have to split with the CCP, so all we can do is go by what we do know and what historical precedence tells us. Regardless of the wonky analysis, it is clear that Godzilla x Kong is performing where it needs to and that its much lower budget compared to the other films in the franchise is helping to make it a rare success for the“Monsterverse” brand. Add to this the fact that there is no real competition for Godzilla x Kong over the next few weeks, and it is clear that the film has a long way to go before it peters out. We will continue to track these developments as they unfold.

According to the-numbers.com, the top 5 this weekend domestically were:

1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (60% drop in 2nd weekend)
2. Monkey Man ($10.1 million as a new release)
3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (42% drop in 3rd weekend)
4. The First Omen ($8.3 million as a new release)
5. Kung Fu Panda 4 (24% drop in 5th weekend)

Two Box Office Tales: Success vs. Failure

There is no doubt that when it comes to Godzilla x Kong, we are seeing a box office success in the making. The same thing cannot be said for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire. Whereas Godzilla x Kong is easily beating the daily box office against the runs of the last two films in the franchise with almost twice as much as its immediate predecessor, the new Ghostbusters is still trailing Afterlife domestically by about $20 million, and it’s roughly $50 behind the atrocious Ghostbusters (2016). Though I earlier indicated that Godzilla x Kong is not too far ahead of the previous pandemic day and date release globally, the tracking is looking solid for it to eventually make decent profits; the same cannot be said for the latest Ghostbusters film. Right now, the tracking indicates that it will have the worst final box office of the three films since 2016, and when you remember not only inflation but ticket price differences, it is essentially game over.

If you want further analysis on these or any other films, check out the full charting I do over at my website. Have a wonderful rest of your day, and as always, God bless!

(If you ever want further insight into my methodology, see my previous articles HERE and HERE.)